US stock index futures edged higher on Tuesday as investors leaned back into the artificial-intelligence trade, taking comfort from strong corporate earnings and fresh signs that big technology companies are still willing to spend aggressively.
The result was a market that appeared increasingly prepared to look past renewed violence in the Middle East and focus instead on the earnings and capital-spending.
That does not mean geopolitics has disappeared from view. It means the market is ranking its concerns differently.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. Futures are pointing to a firmer start
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3% and 0.4%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 273 points, or 0.6%, indicating broad-based early strength across major indices.
The move signals that investors are willing to extend the recent rally rather than pause after a strong run.
It also reflects a market that is still prepared to reward growth and earnings momentum, even with a noisy geopolitical backdrop and fresh questions about US monetary leadership.
2. AI is once again the market’s main story
The strongest support for sentiment is coming from the artificial-intelligence theme.
J.P. Morgan raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,600 from 7,200, arguing that AI optimism and stronger-than-expected earnings are still driving equity valuations higher.
The bank simultaneously lifted its 2026 EPS estimate for the index to $330, representing 22% year-on-year growth, with AI capital expenditure forecast to rise 58% year-on-year to $775 billion by year-end.
That matters because higher strategist targets do not usually move markets on their own, but they can reinforce a trend investors are already inclined to believe in.
3. Earnings season is still doing the heavy lifting
The AI trade is being supported by a solid run of results.
The S&P 500 is up roughly 4% since the start of the year, helped by a reporting season that has so far come in well ahead of expectations, with blended Q1 earnings growth running at 13.2% — marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year gains.
Of the approximately 50 S&P 500 companies that had reported by mid-April, 88% had beaten EPS estimates — well above the five-year average of 78% — while 84% had topped revenue forecasts, also comfortably above the long-term average beat rate.
4. The Warsh hearing could stir policy nerves
The next major point of tension is political rather than economic.
Investors are watching the Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to chair the Federal Reserve.
The hearing could prove contentious and may raise fresh questions about the independence of the central bank, particularly given the increasingly public pressure around Fed leadership.
That keeps rates and policy uncertainty in the background even if they are not the immediate market driver.
5. Stock-specific moves show the market is still selective
Premarket trading also highlighted how quickly investors are distinguishing between winners and laggards.
Apple slipped around 0.6% after news that chief executive Tim Cook would step down as CEO — transitioning to the role of Executive Chairman — and be replaced by longtime hardware engineering chief John Ternus, who has led Apple’s hardware division for more than 25 years.
Leadership transitions at a company of Apple’s scale rarely go unnoticed, and even a measured market reaction can still reflect uncertainty about strategic direction.
Elsewhere, Alaska Air Group fell 3.5% after suspending its full-year 2026 guidance, citing jet fuel price volatility, after reporting a Q1 net loss of $193 million — reminding investors that not every company is benefiting from the same upbeat narrative lifting big technology and index futures.
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